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UFG Market Perspective
In mid-August, large (S&P 500), mid (S&P 400), and small-cap (Russell 2000) US benchmarks, as well as growth and value, set all-time highs. It’s been said that all new highs are positive, except for the final one. Since 1995, whenever...
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Last week, I received several calls asking whether we should raise cash, given that the market is at all-time highs and there is no shortage of things to worry about. In my experience, when a few clients are asking the same question,...
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I wanted to check in again this month in light of the renewed tensions in the Middle East. Please read below for an update on the health of the stock market. Recent weakness in large technology companies has raised concerns about...
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Recent unrest in the Middle East has caused another sharp, though not unusual, market downturn. While these events can be unsettling, maintaining perspective is essential. Since 2020, there have been four significant market pullbacks....
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When the stock market falls suddenly, often due to major events, it is useful to analyze investor behavior just before the decline. I'm going to dust off my charts of the three most recent downturns: the 2020 pandemic, the 2022 rise in...
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UFG Market Perspective
As we look ahead to 2026, it’s natural to wonder what the markets may have in store, especially after a year that reminded us how quickly headlines, sentiment, and prices can change. While forecasts often attract attention, history...
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As we close out 2025, I want to thank you for your continued trust and take a moment to look back on the year. It seemed as if we had a constant stream of confusing and alarming headlines. News stories about tariffs, elections, global...
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I know many of you are feeling more anxious lately, and it’s understandable. Headlines can grab our attention and make it tempting to react emotionally. But investing based on fear or excitement rarely leads to good results. Instead of...
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I hope I’m not jinxing anything, but I wanted to share some thoughts now that the recent market downturn seems to be behind us. The signs continue to improve. While the situation isn’t perfect yet, things are moving in the right...
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2025 has had a rough start for stock investors, but the overall picture isn't as bad as it seems. While the S&P 500 is down 4.2% year-to-date (YTD) through Tuesday, the equal-weighted S&P 500 — which gives each stock the same...
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The S&P 500's recent decline began on February 20th, the day after the index recorded an all-time high. As I mentioned in last month’s note, we lacked confirmation of the market’s health, making us vulnerable to a pullback. The...
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The government releases two key reports monthly: employment numbers and inflation data. These reports often dominate financial news, but I believe many networks do more harm than good. If you must watch, my recommendation is Bloomberg....
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I'm writing my year-end note a bit early. The holidays are packed tight this year, and I'm afraid the year will go by in the blink of an eye once Thanksgiving is upon us. Also, considering a change in my market outlook for the better,...
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I'm just checking in to give you some perspective on where we stand. In general, the knee-jerk reaction when dealing with uncertainty is to sell and wait for a resolution. As I mentioned in the prior note, the level of uncertainty has...
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Uncertainty has crept into the stock market over the past few weeks just as the market's health improved. We've been waiting for the number of stocks participating in the gains to broaden, which occurred briefly after the July...
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In early January, I discussed how stocks and bonds might react to changes in interest rates. With the latest developments, let's revisit that topic. Interest Rates and Market Expectations As we entered 2024, many expected interest...
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The following graphs reveal one of the concerning aspects of the market rebound that began in October 2022. The top section shows the recovery from the Housing market bust in 2008 and the recovery from the Pandemic in 2022. The bottom...
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At the end of 2023, the stock market was riding high based on the expectation that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates multiple times this year, starting in March. In mid-December, the Fed surprised everyone by considering...
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We had quite a rally in the stock market towards the end of 2023. Expectations of several cuts of interest rates in 2024 drove this rally. Indeed, stock market investors cheered Jerome Powell’s, the Chair of the...
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The bull market that began almost one year ago has been very unusual. One of the notable aspects is the performance of small-cap stocks. Per Lowry Research, through September 30, 2023: Of the 10 new bull markets since its...
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Hello everyone, We are coming up on the anniversary of the stock market low, which hit October 12, 2022. We still don’t know whether that date is the final low for the bear market that started last year. We can...
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